Climatechange: shock report

Climatechange: shock report
Rosslyn Beeby
Monday, 9 October 2006

Leading aid agencies are calling for an urgent review of Australia's immigration program, warning millions of people in the Asia-Pacific region will be left homeless by climate change in the next 40 years.

World Vision chief executive, Reverend Tim Costello said yesterday, "Climate change is emerging as a significant threat to political stability and security in the region.

"The Australian Government cannot hope to win a war on terror in the Asia-Pacific region if it isn't prepared also to wage a war against global warming."

Mr Costello warned Australia would need to assist with relocating and retraining people in developing countries affected by climate change and "develop flexible immigration programs that will help address these needs".

According to a CSIRO report, commissioned by aid and conservation agencies forming the national Climate Change and Development Roundtable, more than 150,000 million people in the Asia-Pacific region would be displaced by rising sea levels by 2050.

It warns that climate change impacts on human security in a region - where 60 per cent of the world's population lives - could be "sufficiently severe" to induce or contribute to violence and armed conflict threatening national and regional security.

Regional impacts would include intensification of tropical storms and cyclones, water shortages, rising sea levels, increased spread of dengue fever and malaria, crop failures, food scarcity and threats to national economic productivity.

The report, by scientists with CSIRO's Marine and Atmospheric Research division, says coastal areas most at risk from rising sea levels were low-lying river deltas in Vietnam, China, India, Pakistan and Bangladesh. Among Pacific Island nations, Tonga and Papua New Guinea have both recorded sea level rises of 8mm per year over the past 12 years. The Federated States of Micronesia has recorded a rise of 21mm per year since 2001.

"With 30-50cm of sea-level rise, the economic costs in the Asia-Pacific region rise to the hundreds of millions to billions of dollars per year and over 100,000 kilometres of coastline experiences the effects," the reports says.

It warns "there is little room for optimism", with climate models predicting temperatures are likely to warm more quickly in the arid areas of northern Pakistan, western China and India.

China could lose up to 70 per cent of its high-altitude forests and some Pacific Island nations would lose more than 50 per cent of coastal mangrove ecosystems.

The report says hotter, drier conditions caused by climate change have already caused an increase in the frequency and severity of wildfires in Asia. Fires associated with higher temperatures caused by the 1997-98 El Nino released 2.1 billion tons of carbon into the Earth's atmosphere, with 60 per cent coming from wildfires in South-East Asia.

The Australian Conservation Foundation's Asia-Pacific program coordinator Lee Tan said villages in rainforest areas of Papua New Guinea had received no rain for the past four months and were experiencing water shortages. "These are rainforest areas, and they are in drought," she said. "Australia is the region's biggest contributor to greenhouse emissions and therefore we have an obligation to support countries that are being affected by climate change."

According to the CSIRO report, Australia has the highest per capita emissions of carbon dioxide - 17.2 tonnes for each person - for the Asia Pacific region.