Oceanic "Lab on a Chip"

A sturdy array of miniaturized sensors promises to help marine scientists track nutrients and pollutants in oceans, as well as temperature and other important chemical and biochemical characteristics.

Having passed its tests at depths of 1,600 meters (5,250 feet), the marine "lab on a chip" will be developed further for commercialization, according to project directors at the University of Southampton.

The scientists also aim to develop small chips that could identify individual phytoplankton in the oceans. Among the future applications of the chips will be environmental impact analysis and monitoring ship ballast water.

SOURCE: University of Southampton, http://www.soton.ac.uk/mediacentre/news/2008/dec/08_233.shtml

Decarbonizing Energy

Solar, wind, and biomass energy technologies that are available now could cut carbon emissions by one-third by 2030, as well as generate thousands of new jobs, according to "Low-Carbon Energy: A Roadmap," a new report from the Worldwatch Institute.

These power sources will need to be integrated with digital smart grids that can flexibly meet changes in supply and demand. In addition, economical energy storage capacity must be developed, says the report.  These measures will help retire hundreds of coal-fired plants, which provide 40% of the world's energy.

"We no longer need to say 'in the future' when talking about a low-carbon energy system," says Worldwatch President Christopher Flavin, author of the report. "These technologies—unlike carbon-capture facilities—are being deployed now and are poised to make the most carbon-intensive fossil fuels obsolete."

DETAILS: Worldwatch Institute, www.worldwatch.org/node/5948

10 Forecasts for 2009 and Beyond - Part Two

Forecast #6: The race for biomedical and genetic enhancement will — in the twenty-first century — be what the space race was in the previous century. Humanity is ready to pursue biomedical and genetic enhancement, says UCLA professor Gregory Stock, the money is already being invested, but, he says, “We'll also fret about these things — because we're human, and it's what we do.” — Gregory Stock quoted in THE FUTURIST, Nov-Dec 2007.

Forecast #7: Professional knowledge will become obsolete almost as quickly as it's acquired. An individual's professional knowledge is becoming outdated at a much faster rate than ever before. Most professions will require continuous instruction and retraining. Rapid changes in the job market and work-related technologies will necessitate job education for almost every worker. At any given moment, a substantial portion of the labor force will be in job retraining programs. — Marvin J. Cetron and Owen Davies, "Trends Shaping Tomorrow's World, Part Two," THE FUTURIST May-June 2008.

Forecast #8: Urbanization will hit 60% by 2030. As more of the world's population lives in cities, rapid development to accommodate them will make existing environmental and socioeconomic problems worse. Epidemics will be more common due to crowded dwelling units and poor sanitation. Global warming may accelerate due to higher carbon dioxide output and loss of carbon-absorbing plants. — Marvin J. Cetron and Owen Davies, “Trends Shaping Tomorrow's World,” THE FUTURIST Mar-Apr 2008.

Forecast #9: The Middle East will become more secular while religious influence in China will grow. Popular support for religious government is declining in places like Iraq, according to a University of Michigan study. The researchers report that in 2004 only one-fourth of respondents polled believed that Iraq would be a better place if religion and politics were separated. By 2007, that proportion was one-third. Separate reports reveal a countertrend in China. — World Trends & Forecasts, THE FUTURIST Nov-Dec 2007.

Forecast #10: Access to electricity will reach 83% of the world by 2030. Electrification has expanded around the world, from 40% connected in 1970 to 73% in 2000, and may reach 83% of the world's people by 2030. Electricity is fundamental to raising living standards and access to the world's products and services. Impoverished areas such as Sub-Saharan Africa still have low rates of electrification; Uganda is just 3.7% electrified. — Andy Hines, “Global Trends in Culture, Infrastructure, and Values,” Sep-Oct 2008.

Source: World Future Society http://wfs.org

10 Forecasts for 2009 and Beyond - Part One

Forecast # 1: Everything you say and do will be recorded by 2030. By the late 2010s, ubiquitous unseen nanodevices will provide seamless communication and surveillance among all people everywhere. Humans will have nanoimplants, facilitating interaction in an omnipresent network. Everyone will have a unique Internet Protocol (IP) address. Since nano storage capacity is almost limitless, all conversation and activity will be recorded and recoverable. — Gene Stephens, “Cybercrime in the Year 2025,” THE FUTURIST July-Aug 2008.

Forecast #2: Bioviolence will become a greater threat as the technology becomes more accessible. Emerging scientific disciplines (notably genomics, nanotechnology, and other microsciences) could pave the way for a bioattack. Bacteria and viruses could be altered to increase their lethality or to evade antibiotic treatment.— Barry Kellman, “Bioviolence: A Growing Threat,” THE FUTURIST May-June 2008.

Forecast #3: The car's days as king of the road will soon be over. More powerful wireless communication that reduces demand for travel, flying delivery drones to replace trucks, and policies to restrict the number of vehicles owned in each household are among the developments that could thwart the automobile's historic dominance on the environment and culture. If current trends were to continue, the world would have to make way for a total of 3 billion vehicles on the road by 2025. — Thomas J. Frey, "Disrupting the Automobile's Future," THE FUTURIST, Sep-Oct 2008.

Forecast #4: Careers, and the college majors for preparing for them, are becoming more specialized. An increase in unusual college majors may foretell the growth of unique new career specialties. Instead of simply majoring in business, more students are beginning to explore niche majors such as sustainable business, strategic intelligence, and entrepreneurship. Other unusual majors that are capturing students' imaginations: neuroscience and nanotechnology, computer and digital forensics, and comic book art. Scoff not: The market for comic books and graphic novels in the United States has grown 12% since 2006. —THE FUTURIST, World Trends & Forecasts, Sep-Oct 2008.

Forecast #5: There may not be world law in the foreseeable future, but the world's legal systems will be networked. The Global Legal Information Network (GLIN), a database of local and national laws for more than 50 participating countries, will grow to include more than 100 counties by 2010. The database will lay the groundwork for a more universal understanding of the diversity of laws between nations and will create new opportunities for peace and international partnership.— Joseph N. Pelton, "Toward a Global Rule of Law: A Practical Step Toward World Peace," THE FUTURIST Nov-Dec 2007.

Part Two to follow next week.

Source: World Future Society http://wfs.org

Are businesses pulling back on innovation spending?

It's impossible to assess the success of an innovation strategy if you have trouble measuring it.

Keep this in mind while you read the headline that has emerged from the Boston Consulting Group report on innovation: there is strengthening correlation between executives frustrated with the return on innovation spending and businesses cutting back on innovation investment.

Fewer than half of the 3,000 managers surveyed are satisfied with the financial return on their investment in innovation.  And these figures have been declining steadily - 52% of executives were satisfied in 2006, 46% were satisfied in 2007, and 43% are satisfied in 2008.

The number of managers who say that their business plans to spend more on innovation in the coming year has also fallen - from 72% in 2006 to 67% in 2007 and 63% in 2008.

This is of great concern.  But a big clue as to what is driving this can be found in the results of the survey's question about how companies measure innovation success.  Just 43% of businesses surveyed track innovation as vigorously as they track other core business operations, and a mere 35% are happy with their innovation metrics.   This might be why: the most popular metrics are customer satisfaction, the percentage of sales from new products, and overall revenue growth.  These are all important measures of a company's management execution, but they hardly measure innovation success accurately.  Innovation metrics must be both specific and incremental.

Here is another interesting finding - the challenges that executives say get in the way of successful innovation strategies are directly within their control: lengthy development times, a risk-averse corporate culture, difficulty selecting the right ideas to commercialise, silos hindering internal co-operation.  BCG adds that year after year, respondents have consistently identified the same obstacles to innovation return.

An inescapable conclusion is that having identified exactly what ails them, managers and leadership teams are unable or unwilling to fix the root causes.  If that is the case, scaling back all efforts to innovate make sense.

Wait - does it make sense?  Wouldn't giving up on innovation, foresight, strategic thinking be a crippling decision?  Isn't innovation one of the few consistent sources of long-term competitive advantage?

In a tough economic environment, surely now is not the time to scale back on innovation.  Surely now, more than ever, businesses that are wavering need to redouble their efforts and fix the root causes that are holding them back.

What do you think?  How important is the ability to successfully innovate?  And how are you finding the process?

Source: Kristen Le Mesurier - http://blogs.theage.com.au/business/executivestyle/innovator/archives/2008/11/are_businesses.html

Do Futurists know the future?

"Futurists do not claim to be able to predict the future. So much of what will happen in the future depends on what we humans decide to do. If we could know the future with certainty, it would mean that the future could not be changed. Yet this is a main purpose of studying the future: to look at what may happen if present trends continue, decide if this is what is desirable, and, if it's not, work to change it. Knowing the trends can empower you for effective action." - Timothy Mack, President World Future Society

So what is the benefit of engaging a Futurist? Futurists keep abreast of developments, in our rapidly changing world, as new opportunities are emerging everywhere. By getting advance notice of these possible changes, you can take action and prepare to benefit from it in all aspects of your life. Understanding trends and possible future developments is some of the most valuable knowledge you can tap into. It enables you to prepare while you still have the opportunity and time to act.

To truly benefit you need to have confidence in a respected source. If you would like to Know First, Be First and Profit First then you need to hear Craig Rispin of The Future Trends Group. For more information please contact support@futuretrendsgroup.com